* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 56 56 56 52 49 43 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 56 56 56 52 49 43 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 53 52 49 45 40 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 8 14 14 22 31 25 36 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 14 11 12 2 1 -1 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 273 257 266 274 251 283 309 327 314 303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 146 145 142 147 151 154 153 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 57 58 58 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 14 14 13 11 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 0 0 -8 -8 10 18 35 46 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 19 -2 -10 -16 -3 -5 30 26 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -7 -4 -4 -6 -2 -4 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 815 684 555 416 279 85 237 360 300 327 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.1 54.3 55.6 56.9 60.0 63.4 67.0 70.7 74.2 77.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 17 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 41 48 37 26 44 42 41 56 50 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 17. 22. 28. 33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -16. -24. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 2. -1. -7. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.9 51.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.56 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.1 109.3 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.2% 11.0% 9.4% 7.2% 10.8% 10.2% 9.2% Logistic: 3.6% 5.5% 3.7% 3.3% 1.6% 3.2% 1.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 1.0% 4.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 3.7% 8.6% 5.4% 4.3% 2.9% 5.0% 4.1% 3.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 56 56 56 52 49 43 38 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 52 48 45 39 34 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 47 43 40 34 29 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 40 36 33 27 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT