* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/21/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 48 54 58 60 56 61 60 61 68 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 39 48 54 58 60 56 61 60 61 68 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 33 38 42 45 47 46 45 45 45 49 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 7 6 7 10 10 16 21 25 19 21 17 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -2 0 0 -1 1 4 5 8 9 3 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 78 88 71 53 342 319 275 286 272 278 235 258 280 327 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.1 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 133 131 135 137 133 135 141 140 137 141 139 146 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 63 63 59 58 57 59 63 65 65 62 60 53 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 9 11 10 9 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 17 22 15 7 8 -1 -14 -17 -28 -33 -40 -38 -25 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -5 -20 -11 -23 -44 -55 -1 17 63 58 47 28 -20 22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 4 4 9 20 12 16 3 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1490 1493 1438 1327 1220 1049 959 916 813 636 531 381 440 520 608 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 13 14 13 13 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 25 17 13 17 28 12 42 30 25 20 39 29 25 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 16. 25. 34. 43. 49. 52. 55. 55. 54. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -0. -5. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -10. -12. -14. -9. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 23. 29. 33. 35. 31. 36. 35. 36. 43. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.4 37.9 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 109.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 13.9% 9.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 10.5% 5.8% 1.6% 1.0% 5.8% 8.7% 10.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 1.7% 11.2% 5.4% 2.7% 0.4% 2.2% 2.9% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/21/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 39 48 54 58 60 56 61 60 61 68 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 37 46 52 56 58 54 59 58 59 66 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 41 47 51 53 49 54 53 54 61 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 32 38 42 44 40 45 44 45 52 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT