* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 57 57 56 51 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 57 57 56 51 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 56 55 53 48 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 13 16 16 30 28 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 14 10 9 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 253 270 276 272 263 310 313 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 144 142 144 151 153 156 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 54 53 54 53 54 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 13 14 13 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 -7 -5 5 18 27 42 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -4 -5 -13 0 8 6 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -8 -7 -8 -4 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 662 522 383 236 107 94 350 306 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.8 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.6 55.9 57.3 58.7 61.9 65.5 69.1 72.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 48 34 26 29 58 41 63 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -14. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -4. -8. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.2 53.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.34 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 333.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.7% 10.0% 8.8% 6.4% 10.1% 8.5% 7.5% Logistic: 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 2.1% 0.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.6% 4.4% 3.7% 2.4% 4.2% 3.1% 2.6% DTOPS: 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 57 57 56 51 47 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 54 54 53 48 44 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 50 45 41 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 44 39 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT