* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/21/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 55 59 55 55 55 59 62 63 67 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 55 59 55 55 55 59 62 63 67 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 44 44 43 42 43 46 49 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 10 5 5 4 8 7 15 18 28 19 23 16 19 20 23 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 2 2 0 1 0 5 4 7 4 -2 -5 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 89 99 79 55 1 319 291 275 281 273 258 249 278 307 325 311 257 SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 132 132 134 136 135 133 138 144 138 139 142 146 145 142 137 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 61 58 56 58 59 62 62 63 65 61 56 53 55 66 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 7 9 9 9 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 14 11 6 4 -8 -17 -25 -37 -32 -47 -43 -31 -41 -32 4 200 MB DIV -7 -7 -3 -31 -29 -63 -14 34 48 37 70 37 5 7 25 40 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 1 3 8 13 12 7 8 1 2 6 1 LAND (KM) 1485 1404 1298 1210 1128 995 917 901 671 570 389 349 410 509 684 848 968 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 15 14 19 27 15 27 36 32 20 35 30 26 31 26 14 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 25. 34. 42. 48. 51. 54. 54. 52. 52. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -15. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 34. 30. 30. 30. 34. 37. 38. 42. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 39.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.71 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 15.5% 10.6% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 20.2% 14.1% 5.5% 3.7% 11.6% 9.7% 10.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 5.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% Consensus: 2.4% 13.8% 8.5% 4.2% 1.2% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 06/21/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/21/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 42 49 55 59 55 55 55 59 62 63 67 72 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 39 46 52 56 52 52 52 56 59 60 64 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 40 46 50 46 46 46 50 53 54 58 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 38 42 38 38 38 42 45 46 50 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT