* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932023 06/22/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 53 53 50 52 53 51 53 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 53 53 50 52 53 51 53 56 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 47 47 45 43 42 41 42 44 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 3 4 7 8 12 16 27 21 23 18 24 16 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 4 4 7 8 2 0 -5 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 65 11 310 321 315 289 291 281 279 267 285 291 317 294 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.4 27.7 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 135 135 130 134 141 138 137 145 144 148 145 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 57 57 59 60 63 63 67 64 64 62 61 59 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 9 9 8 7 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 31 25 22 14 -4 -9 -18 -26 -41 -39 -42 -35 -41 -34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 0 -5 -16 -24 -44 17 33 41 54 47 26 -2 10 29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 0 4 3 9 15 12 7 3 -6 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1391 1299 1212 1135 1071 974 991 773 617 455 318 372 447 584 733 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 13 11 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 19 29 22 17 33 28 21 25 37 26 30 38 21 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 23. 30. 37. 43. 46. 48. 47. 46. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -12. -12. -14. -16. -17. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 18. 23. 23. 20. 22. 23. 21. 23. 26. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.7 40.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932023 INVEST 06/22/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.6 109.3 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 15.4% 10.5% 8.2% 5.7% 10.3% 13.2% 16.3% Logistic: 2.5% 7.1% 3.1% 0.4% 0.2% 2.8% 5.6% 9.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 9.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 2.1% 10.6% 5.0% 2.9% 2.0% 4.9% 6.4% 8.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932023 INVEST 06/22/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932023 INVEST 06/22/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 42 48 53 53 50 52 53 51 53 56 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 45 50 50 47 49 50 48 50 53 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 40 45 45 42 44 45 43 45 48 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 37 37 34 36 37 35 37 40 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT