* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 59 58 53 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 59 58 53 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 59 57 52 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 22 26 26 24 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 4 7 7 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 248 243 251 264 285 306 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 147 154 149 151 153 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 51 51 53 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 15 14 12 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 4 10 14 18 37 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 4 15 14 2 28 52 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 -1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 271 134 81 52 213 395 256 324 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.5 59.9 61.5 63.1 66.6 70.1 73.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 39 60 42 35 79 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -12. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.8 57.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.27 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 126.5 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 389.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.9% 9.5% 8.6% 6.1% 9.3% 7.8% 7.2% Logistic: 1.6% 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 3.6% 2.8% 2.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 60 59 58 53 48 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 56 51 46 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 49 44 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 44 39 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT