* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042023 06/22/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 47 51 52 54 55 56 58 61 65 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 47 51 52 54 55 56 58 61 65 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 45 45 45 44 44 45 49 53 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 5 8 10 14 18 25 23 25 18 20 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 2 0 -3 1 1 0 2 0 0 -3 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 16 297 308 314 294 299 268 272 251 273 276 300 298 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.0 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 134 130 133 141 139 151 144 143 145 146 146 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 56 56 60 61 62 60 59 59 53 54 56 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 23 17 7 -6 -15 -21 -21 -19 -21 -7 -20 -24 -34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -9 -21 -20 -50 -10 33 70 63 67 11 1 8 23 23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 4 7 10 5 4 0 2 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1253 1170 1099 1062 1020 1009 814 656 438 320 378 460 588 703 887 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.9 15.3 16.9 18.5 20.2 21.7 22.9 23.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.5 44.8 45.9 47.1 49.6 52.2 54.7 57.7 60.3 62.5 64.4 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 13 14 14 16 16 14 12 10 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 21 23 14 11 31 27 21 38 32 25 37 30 23 14 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 22. 29. 36. 41. 43. 45. 45. 43. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 0. -4. -9. -10. -12. -12. -11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -12. -12. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 21. 22. 24. 25. 26. 28. 31. 35. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 42.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 FOUR 06/22/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.77 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.8% 10.2% 8.1% 5.4% 10.3% 12.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 13.5% 10.1% 1.9% 0.7% 4.0% 2.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 2.7% 10.1% 7.0% 3.3% 2.0% 5.1% 5.1% 0.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 FOUR 06/22/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 FOUR 06/22/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 35 37 41 47 51 52 54 55 56 58 61 65 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 44 48 49 51 52 53 55 58 62 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 40 44 45 47 48 49 51 54 58 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 36 37 39 40 41 43 46 50 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT