* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042023 06/22/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 43 45 47 45 47 47 48 49 51 54 62 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 43 45 47 45 47 47 48 49 51 54 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 37 36 34 33 33 34 36 40 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 8 7 13 17 27 16 24 17 19 14 15 10 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 0 -2 0 2 2 6 3 -2 1 -4 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 49 314 317 309 293 279 279 277 256 259 285 293 296 292 250 234 208 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.2 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.8 27.6 26.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 130 130 136 140 141 147 141 147 144 143 149 132 117 108 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 7 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 54 54 59 58 62 60 59 57 55 56 61 66 67 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 9 850 MB ENV VOR 31 30 20 11 0 -5 -19 -27 -21 -25 -26 -23 -38 -44 -38 -3 26 200 MB DIV -6 -15 -25 -34 -16 21 33 48 73 15 11 17 7 28 43 59 80 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 13 10 2 0 -5 -1 -3 0 4 11 LAND (KM) 1175 1110 1061 1025 1004 944 721 604 370 345 411 517 638 810 1027 1038 988 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.6 16.2 17.7 19.3 20.9 22.3 23.4 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.6 45.9 47.1 48.4 50.8 53.5 56.0 58.7 61.2 63.2 64.7 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 15 13 10 7 8 10 11 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 15 11 29 28 24 24 46 23 31 38 28 22 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 21. 29. 35. 40. 42. 43. 43. 41. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -21. -22. -23. -23. -21. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 15. 17. 15. 17. 17. 18. 19. 21. 24. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.3 43.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 FOUR 06/22/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 27.0 to 144.1 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 14.1% 9.5% 7.6% 5.0% 9.9% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 11.2% 7.6% 1.2% 0.5% 2.6% 1.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 9.1% 5.9% 2.9% 1.8% 4.3% 4.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 FOUR 06/22/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 FOUR 06/22/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 39 43 45 47 45 47 47 48 49 51 54 62 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 42 44 46 44 46 46 47 48 50 53 61 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 38 40 42 40 42 42 43 44 46 49 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 33 35 33 35 35 36 37 39 42 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT