* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 48 44 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 49 48 45 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 47 45 42 39 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 25 23 20 22 32 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 1 1 -4 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 251 270 296 290 309 296 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.1 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 149 152 152 150 140 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 11 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 56 57 60 60 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 14 25 29 43 50 70 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 8 0 27 31 53 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 0 -3 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 71 73 251 328 315 173 250 366 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.0 63.6 65.3 66.9 70.5 74.0 77.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 51 34 31 32 59 26 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -11. -14. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.2 60.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.86 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.59 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.3 109.3 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.8% 8.3% 7.7% 5.4% 9.4% 8.2% 8.2% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 4.6% 2.9% 2.7% 1.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 50 49 48 45 41 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 49 46 42 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 46 42 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 41 37 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT