* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042023 06/23/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 43 46 49 49 50 48 48 46 47 46 49 54 62 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 43 46 49 49 50 48 48 46 47 46 49 54 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 45 46 46 44 42 40 40 40 42 45 51 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 4 5 8 12 22 24 19 21 16 21 16 17 16 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 1 -2 -3 2 2 3 6 2 -1 0 -2 1 4 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 115 251 311 295 282 293 269 277 245 270 291 312 291 306 245 264 231 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 28.2 28.0 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 27.7 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 130 130 133 141 138 149 147 140 145 146 145 146 131 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 55 55 53 54 56 57 58 61 60 59 58 60 61 64 65 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 5 4 4 2 4 6 9 850 MB ENV VOR 34 28 16 4 2 -11 -25 -30 -37 -44 -35 -48 -54 -59 -12 -31 -16 200 MB DIV -10 -22 -34 -22 -6 10 34 50 52 0 0 4 7 9 42 21 48 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 2 5 10 11 2 0 -6 -6 -3 -5 3 2 7 LAND (KM) 1097 1063 1027 1000 998 818 648 455 309 319 371 520 675 786 843 937 1049 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.8 15.1 16.9 18.3 19.9 21.1 22.1 23.3 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.8 47.0 48.3 49.6 52.1 54.8 57.5 60.0 62.4 64.3 65.6 66.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 13 11 10 8 8 9 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 15 11 27 32 28 21 35 38 24 34 35 22 19 8 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 26. 32. 36. 38. 39. 38. 36. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -9. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. -22. -24. -23. -20. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 15. 13. 13. 11. 12. 11. 14. 19. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 44.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 FOUR 06/23/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 16.6% 11.4% 8.9% 6.4% 11.2% 12.7% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 27.0% 22.7% 5.7% 2.3% 6.1% 2.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 5.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 4.2% 16.4% 12.1% 4.9% 2.9% 6.3% 5.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 FOUR 06/23/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 FOUR 06/23/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 40 43 46 49 49 50 48 48 46 47 46 49 54 62 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 40 43 46 46 47 45 45 43 44 43 46 51 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 39 42 42 43 41 41 39 40 39 42 47 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 31 34 34 35 33 33 31 32 31 34 39 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT