* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/23/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 53 56 58 57 55 55 54 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 53 56 58 57 55 55 54 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 53 56 57 57 55 53 53 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 6 9 11 18 16 25 22 25 19 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 1 0 0 6 6 6 4 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 345 301 268 281 271 259 260 249 271 286 286 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 132 134 138 141 146 148 142 146 147 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 55 54 57 58 62 60 61 57 53 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 16 11 7 0 -17 -30 -26 -25 -29 -29 -19 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -28 -33 -20 -1 20 43 42 63 20 8 24 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 2 7 9 7 4 4 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1008 967 940 952 885 663 528 303 281 321 465 546 644 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 15.8 17.4 18.9 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.5 48.7 50.0 51.3 53.9 56.7 59.2 61.5 63.8 65.9 67.2 67.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 28 37 30 27 24 49 24 32 34 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 34. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -10. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 19. 21. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.8 46.3 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/23/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.78 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.47 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.8 27.0 to 144.1 0.57 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.4 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 25.2% 15.3% 10.1% 7.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 30.8% 31.6% 11.8% 3.4% 6.9% 3.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 3.0% 14.2% 13.8% 1.0% 0.7% 8.3% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 8.5% 23.4% 20.2% 7.7% 3.9% 9.2% 1.2% 0.5% DTOPS: 5.0% 8.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/23/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/23/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 50 53 56 58 57 55 55 54 59 61 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 48 51 53 52 50 50 49 54 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 45 47 46 44 44 43 48 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 36 38 37 35 35 34 39 41 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT