* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/23/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 54 56 57 57 55 53 52 55 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 54 56 57 57 55 53 52 55 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 56 58 58 56 53 52 53 57 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 10 11 16 22 23 31 24 24 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 4 5 3 4 0 -1 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 311 280 288 291 268 268 247 264 270 288 268 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 29.0 28.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 133 136 140 139 152 139 142 144 151 147 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 57 57 61 62 59 58 53 52 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 9 9 11 15 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 9 4 -4 -10 -29 -29 -30 -17 -20 -17 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -17 -11 8 27 58 52 45 7 10 18 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 4 4 10 2 7 -1 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 940 945 895 774 601 436 316 350 438 596 685 738 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.0 16.7 18.4 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.1 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.7 49.9 51.2 52.5 55.2 57.7 60.2 62.5 64.3 65.6 66.8 67.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 26 35 28 27 20 40 29 24 35 40 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 27. 28. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -8. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 10. 16. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.2 47.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/23/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.64 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 28.4% 17.4% 10.5% 8.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.7% 22.8% 22.2% 7.0% 1.9% 4.7% 1.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 4.0% 13.1% 13.8% 1.3% 0.8% 5.7% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 21.4% 17.8% 6.3% 3.6% 7.6% 0.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/23/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/23/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 54 56 57 57 55 53 52 55 61 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 49 51 52 52 50 48 47 50 56 57 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 46 46 44 42 41 44 50 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 38 38 36 34 33 36 42 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT