* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL032023 06/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 37 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 37 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 43 40 38 36 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 25 36 41 34 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -5 -6 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 291 301 308 306 288 297 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 145 141 135 154 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 9 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 56 56 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 46 51 55 61 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 14 44 27 34 43 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 280 242 147 112 127 286 409 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.7 67.4 69.1 70.9 72.6 76.1 79.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 31 33 37 19 45 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 65.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032023 BRET 06/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 27.0 to 144.1 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 11.5% 7.4% 6.8% 4.1% 8.3% 7.3% 8.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032023 BRET 06/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032023 BRET 06/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 40 39 37 36 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 41 39 38 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 38 37 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 32 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT