* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/23/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 51 52 52 53 48 48 45 50 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 51 52 52 53 48 48 45 50 56 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 51 50 47 44 43 45 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 11 11 18 18 27 22 28 25 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 5 6 7 6 6 0 -1 -3 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 272 280 286 265 250 241 249 265 274 284 285 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 132 136 140 139 143 141 141 145 147 149 152 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 57 55 57 63 60 61 57 54 55 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 7 8 6 10 14 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 -3 -11 -25 -27 -30 -26 -18 -26 -14 -19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 1 12 29 22 62 62 21 16 28 32 21 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 6 10 10 7 1 3 0 3 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 950 977 910 788 688 565 379 360 460 560 634 746 826 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 17.9 19.6 21.0 22.7 23.8 24.4 25.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 49.9 51.1 52.5 53.8 56.4 58.8 61.1 63.0 64.4 65.3 66.8 69.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 15 15 14 13 10 6 7 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 30 26 26 23 25 40 23 29 42 39 32 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -15. -11. -6. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 3. 3. -0. 5. 11. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 48.7 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/23/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.66 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.60 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.60 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.8% 12.1% 9.6% 7.2% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 9.6% 7.7% 2.4% 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.8% 7.5% 4.1% 2.7% 4.6% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/23/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/23/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 51 52 52 53 48 48 45 50 56 60 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 47 48 48 49 44 44 41 46 52 56 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 43 44 39 39 36 41 47 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 37 32 32 29 34 40 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT