* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/24/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 55 52 48 48 53 60 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 55 52 48 48 53 60 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 53 52 50 49 50 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 6 7 18 20 29 22 21 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 9 13 12 9 5 0 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 310 301 253 257 240 249 263 277 297 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 28.0 28.1 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 138 140 138 140 142 139 143 144 147 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 61 62 62 58 57 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 12 15 19 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -9 -12 -17 -28 -16 -18 -7 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 32 48 73 61 51 38 11 46 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 7 13 13 11 4 4 1 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 958 846 751 682 638 461 467 530 596 686 784 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.9 17.9 19.8 21.5 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.6 51.8 53.0 54.3 55.7 58.0 59.9 61.7 62.7 63.7 64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 17 16 14 11 9 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 25 20 24 39 29 25 29 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -4. 2. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -2. 3. 10. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.1 50.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/24/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 144.1 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 20.9% 12.5% 9.8% 7.7% 11.3% 10.8% 9.9% Logistic: 9.1% 12.4% 8.4% 5.2% 2.2% 3.3% 1.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 4.5% 8.3% 6.6% 1.3% 1.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 13.9% 9.2% 5.5% 3.7% 5.8% 4.0% 3.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/24/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/24/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 55 55 52 48 48 53 60 66 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 52 49 45 45 50 57 63 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 47 44 40 40 45 52 58 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 37 33 33 38 45 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT