* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/24/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 51 49 46 47 51 58 66 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 51 49 46 47 51 58 66 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 50 49 46 45 46 50 55 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 21 26 27 25 14 21 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 11 10 7 3 1 2 -2 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 282 255 250 246 235 261 260 293 290 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 145 143 143 146 147 145 144 139 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 62 61 61 60 56 55 56 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 11 10 10 12 15 19 22 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -14 -13 -13 -20 -22 -26 -11 -12 -17 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 45 73 79 66 45 29 41 43 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 11 10 14 5 8 2 4 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 803 726 684 606 526 530 612 707 790 895 1006 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.6 17.5 18.7 19.8 21.9 23.4 24.8 25.8 26.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.4 53.6 54.9 56.1 57.3 59.4 60.8 62.2 63.3 63.8 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 15 12 9 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 26 28 36 37 30 25 21 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. 2. 7. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -3. 1. 8. 16. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.6 52.4 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/24/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 303.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 13.1% 8.6% 7.1% 4.2% 8.5% 8.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.6% 3.6% 2.8% 1.6% 3.1% 3.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/24/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/24/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 51 49 46 47 51 58 66 73 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 47 44 45 49 56 64 71 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 44 41 42 46 53 61 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 35 36 40 47 55 62 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT