* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/25/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 46 45 44 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 46 45 44 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 44 42 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 22 28 25 26 27 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 8 6 2 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 248 249 245 240 258 246 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 141 146 145 143 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 63 62 59 58 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 9 9 9 10 13 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -20 -27 -27 -26 -34 -25 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 74 49 54 50 28 34 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 14 20 10 8 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 704 610 553 543 579 709 836 985 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.2 20.3 21.4 22.4 24.3 25.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.2 57.3 58.3 59.4 60.7 61.2 62.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 28 32 29 37 24 20 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 17 CX,CY: -11/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 55.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/25/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.73 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.08 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 27.0 to 144.1 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.2 109.3 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 8.8% 5.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.2% 1.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/25/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/25/2023 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 46 45 44 46 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 45 44 46 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 43 45 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 40 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT