* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/26/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 26 26 27 32 39 44 48 46 51 51 52 46 42 41 V (KT) LAND 30 27 26 26 26 27 32 39 44 48 46 51 51 52 46 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 24 22 21 21 22 25 28 29 30 32 32 32 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 37 33 21 16 19 9 21 11 22 17 30 25 33 27 41 42 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 5 -3 0 -8 SHEAR DIR 262 275 281 264 272 292 277 279 260 227 255 254 283 282 293 274 279 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.1 26.1 25.2 24.1 23.9 24.0 23.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 150 151 150 145 143 139 134 125 115 108 98 96 96 93 92 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.3 -56.0 -56.6 -56.7 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -1.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 68 68 70 70 70 70 69 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 4 7 11 14 16 16 19 20 21 18 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -49 -52 -45 -51 -52 -31 -12 -12 -9 -22 18 13 24 -19 0 -19 200 MB DIV 20 11 19 3 19 42 19 52 14 46 24 56 14 45 19 35 2 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 5 14 11 9 8 6 5 0 -2 1 LAND (KM) 563 604 648 692 727 796 827 883 961 1124 1321 1387 1342 1314 1288 1192 1104 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.4 28.8 30.3 32.1 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.0 61.9 62.4 62.7 63.1 63.8 64.4 64.6 64.1 63.0 61.2 59.2 57.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 7 5 5 4 3 3 6 10 11 12 10 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 29 29 28 21 18 15 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 19. 19. 17. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -2. 2. 6. 9. 7. 11. 11. 11. 6. 1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 2. 9. 14. 18. 16. 21. 21. 22. 16. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 61.0 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/26/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.26 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.28 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.63 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 109.3 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 9.2% 6.1% 4.2% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 2.5% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/26/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/26/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 26 26 26 27 32 39 44 48 46 51 51 52 46 42 41 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 28 29 34 41 46 50 48 53 53 54 48 44 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 27 32 39 44 48 46 51 51 52 46 42 41 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 26 33 38 42 40 45 45 46 40 36 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT