* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 22 27 35 45 48 50 51 53 53 50 44 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 22 27 35 45 48 50 51 53 53 50 44 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 19 18 19 21 23 25 26 27 28 28 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 32 19 14 18 15 11 20 18 19 26 30 35 30 43 38 45 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 274 278 260 273 303 269 300 258 252 230 263 260 291 281 278 271 276 SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.7 27.5 25.9 25.4 24.2 24.2 24.0 23.7 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 153 153 155 151 145 145 143 132 131 114 108 99 97 97 94 92 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.7 -56.3 -56.9 -56.6 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 58 59 59 59 59 65 67 69 71 74 73 72 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 6 9 14 15 16 18 19 20 19 17 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -46 -38 -47 -50 -43 -17 0 -4 -9 0 15 -6 -31 -19 -14 -13 200 MB DIV 9 15 2 15 26 11 30 34 33 45 41 49 40 24 28 17 10 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 -2 1 2 6 9 6 11 1 5 -2 6 -3 0 LAND (KM) 582 618 665 706 749 807 833 874 983 1155 1364 1444 1424 1411 1335 1249 1149 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.1 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.6 29.0 30.5 31.9 32.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.1 63.6 64.0 64.3 64.9 65.3 65.0 64.1 62.4 60.4 58.2 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 8 6 5 4 2 2 4 8 11 12 10 9 6 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 34 36 34 26 22 22 18 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. 9. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 6. 1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. 2. 10. 20. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 25. 19. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.6 62.2 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.43 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 65.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 8.6% 5.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.3% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/26/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 22 22 27 35 45 48 50 51 53 53 50 44 39 38 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 28 36 46 49 51 52 54 54 51 45 40 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 26 34 44 47 49 50 52 52 49 43 38 37 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 20 28 38 41 43 44 46 46 43 37 32 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT