* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 06/26/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 28 38 51 68 80 87 86 80 70 60 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 28 38 51 68 80 87 86 80 70 60 52 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 32 37 43 50 53 49 41 32 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 14 14 11 16 12 7 8 12 16 19 26 31 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 1 5 8 4 -1 -1 1 6 4 -1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 40 27 20 12 327 313 12 91 138 112 102 104 101 82 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.3 29.7 29.6 27.9 26.1 25.4 24.4 25.4 26.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 167 168 169 170 168 163 162 144 125 118 107 116 125 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.2 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.5 -49.9 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 8 6 9 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 76 76 76 73 75 77 75 77 72 70 63 59 60 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 7 12 18 23 25 29 29 27 23 19 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -3 1 0 -8 10 23 32 31 72 78 88 81 90 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 83 99 100 94 111 91 56 26 65 25 -1 -11 13 -31 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 386 391 414 432 443 429 389 330 337 474 512 645 839 1024 1183 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.5 15.8 17.1 18.1 18.7 18.8 18.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.6 99.9 100.2 100.5 100.9 101.8 103.2 105.0 107.1 109.5 112.0 114.4 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 7 9 12 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 37 37 38 40 48 36 19 22 6 0 0 0 0 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 2. 12. 21. 29. 34. 38. 41. 43. 45. 45. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 13. 23. 28. 33. 33. 28. 21. 15. 10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 18. 31. 48. 60. 67. 66. 60. 50. 40. 32. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 99.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 147.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 11.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.6% 2.7% 5.4% 16.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.9% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 2.8% 7.5% Consensus: 0.4% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 2.7% 8.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##