* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 24 26 30 32 32 30 27 24 22 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 24 26 30 32 32 30 27 24 22 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 21 21 21 21 22 23 23 23 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 18 16 12 17 10 21 18 36 32 46 41 44 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 273 289 310 306 288 292 251 231 238 233 249 226 249 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.2 26.8 26.6 25.8 25.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 155 153 151 149 148 144 138 120 119 111 110 105 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -55.7 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 57 57 59 60 58 60 65 67 68 69 74 76 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -36 -45 -54 -53 -38 -10 -3 1 -20 -7 2 20 0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 11 14 27 35 13 47 32 72 43 57 14 59 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 -2 0 -2 2 3 5 5 3 4 0 2 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 597 640 683 729 765 816 862 945 1054 1127 1246 1345 1410 1355 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.0 26.6 27.3 28.2 28.9 29.9 30.6 31.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.9 64.4 64.8 65.2 65.7 66.2 65.9 65.3 64.1 63.0 61.6 60.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 6 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 40 36 31 26 27 28 19 13 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 823 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -7. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 5. 7. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.0 63.1 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.4 27.0 to 144.1 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 109.3 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 13.8% 9.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 5.3% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/26/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 24 24 26 30 32 32 30 27 24 22 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 24 26 30 32 32 30 27 24 22 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 28 30 30 28 25 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 21 23 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT