* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 06/26/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 28 35 46 61 74 86 85 81 69 58 48 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 28 35 46 61 74 86 85 81 69 58 48 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 30 37 44 51 57 59 53 44 36 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 11 12 11 6 13 10 13 25 30 34 28 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 0 1 9 8 0 -7 -2 2 0 0 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 36 36 35 15 335 1 17 76 111 91 97 95 85 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 167 168 163 159 155 147 140 134 131 127 122 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 6 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 78 76 74 73 75 76 75 74 70 68 67 67 67 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 11 14 21 24 28 29 29 25 21 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 6 2 6 17 18 28 62 72 90 92 83 78 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 93 89 88 92 90 94 38 13 18 17 21 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 1 -1 -8 -3 -8 -4 -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 338 340 363 375 390 397 423 498 652 721 786 829 847 887 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.9 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 100.9 101.4 101.9 102.4 102.9 104.4 106.2 108.3 110.6 112.3 113.6 114.4 115.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 9 10 11 10 7 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 38 41 43 41 22 16 14 9 8 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 12. 21. 28. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 14. 21. 30. 31. 30. 23. 17. 10. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 15. 26. 41. 54. 66. 65. 61. 49. 38. 28. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.9 100.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.99 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 23.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 19.8% 8.0% 3.3% 1.0% 8.4% 10.7% 21.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.9% 5.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.9% 2.4% 2.9% Consensus: 0.8% 10.6% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4% 3.1% 4.4% 8.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/26/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##