* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 06/27/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 33 39 52 69 79 87 84 76 61 50 43 36 32 30 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 33 39 52 69 79 87 84 76 61 50 43 36 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 33 41 48 56 62 62 53 44 36 31 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 14 8 6 8 9 12 20 29 32 34 25 27 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 1 1 4 10 4 -5 -3 0 0 1 0 7 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 38 33 26 14 349 7 344 39 119 109 102 104 90 78 66 80 93 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 167 163 160 156 150 143 138 135 130 125 125 127 132 139 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.2 -51.1 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 8 9 6 6 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 74 77 79 76 79 76 73 75 72 72 74 71 74 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 12 13 18 26 25 29 29 28 23 19 16 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 5 -6 0 9 16 24 42 63 75 93 110 127 121 106 103 83 200 MB DIV 96 88 87 54 81 77 65 35 47 32 41 35 20 -13 11 23 7 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -6 -4 -5 -8 -6 -7 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 4 4 LAND (KM) 339 351 362 363 369 394 470 619 722 767 787 757 735 758 804 838 837 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.5 17.0 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 102.3 102.9 103.5 104.2 105.9 107.8 110.0 111.6 112.7 113.2 113.6 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 7 8 9 10 10 6 4 2 4 2 2 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 37 30 24 17 14 12 8 9 8 4 2 2 2 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. 40. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -14. -14. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 18. 23. 30. 31. 28. 20. 14. 9. 5. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 32. 49. 59. 67. 64. 56. 41. 30. 23. 16. 12. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.2 101.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.2% 3.3% 1.3% 0.3% 6.3% 13.0% 19.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 0.3% 4.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 4.4% 6.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##