* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 19 19 22 25 27 26 23 19 18 17 17 17 20 26 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 19 19 22 25 27 26 23 19 18 17 17 17 20 26 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 17 16 17 17 16 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 19 16 12 12 19 10 22 22 43 34 48 42 47 34 37 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 1 2 0 -6 -2 -10 -6 -11 -4 -5 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 281 301 295 276 289 293 244 224 240 230 248 241 268 264 308 302 336 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.3 27.6 27.0 26.7 25.9 24.8 24.2 23.7 24.0 24.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 145 145 148 139 130 122 120 112 103 99 96 97 100 104 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -55.0 -54.9 -55.5 -55.7 -56.4 -56.3 -56.2 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 58 61 64 65 69 70 68 68 71 69 70 64 58 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -39 -48 -47 -37 -13 -9 -4 -19 -5 -9 20 3 30 20 40 31 200 MB DIV 22 35 36 4 -17 34 20 65 42 57 -4 28 -4 47 -19 -9 -16 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 0 -2 2 4 5 5 5 4 6 5 9 7 -7 -14 LAND (KM) 650 699 738 774 788 857 950 1088 1206 1208 1252 1212 1143 1162 1256 1414 1622 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.6 29.6 30.8 31.8 33.1 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.6 65.2 65.6 65.8 66.0 66.3 66.0 65.6 64.9 64.1 63.0 61.5 59.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 9 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 39 33 30 28 29 29 19 10 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 22. 22. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 0. -5. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 24.6 64.6 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 27.0 to 144.1 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.5 109.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/27/2023 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 19 19 22 25 27 26 23 19 18 17 17 17 20 26 18HR AGO 20 19 18 19 19 22 25 27 26 23 19 18 17 17 17 20 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 20 23 25 24 21 17 16 15 15 15 18 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT