* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 06/27/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 25 30 35 50 62 76 80 78 65 52 44 38 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 25 30 35 50 62 76 80 78 65 52 44 38 36 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 31 37 44 52 57 54 46 39 34 33 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 13 7 7 5 13 10 14 23 32 34 30 23 29 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 4 7 6 0 -6 -2 4 -2 3 4 7 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 29 22 17 17 2 326 22 84 101 94 99 93 77 81 74 102 93 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 165 162 160 157 153 144 142 139 139 137 135 135 136 133 128 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 7 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 78 76 77 78 75 73 73 75 74 78 78 80 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 12 13 14 22 24 29 29 30 27 22 19 16 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -3 2 12 9 23 31 56 65 91 108 129 107 98 84 84 90 200 MB DIV 97 79 51 53 71 90 33 25 27 48 49 44 43 39 25 12 18 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -5 -5 -8 -7 -12 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 4 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 316 331 326 326 350 426 582 751 826 865 844 779 715 662 609 535 467 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.3 15.9 15.7 15.9 16.5 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.2 103.9 104.7 105.5 107.4 109.5 111.4 112.6 113.1 113.1 113.0 112.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 10 11 7 5 1 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 25 20 18 15 14 9 11 12 11 8 6 6 4 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 12. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -14. -15. -16. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 6. 11. 16. 27. 30. 32. 26. 19. 14. 9. 8. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 10. 15. 30. 42. 56. 60. 58. 45. 32. 24. 18. 16. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.8 102.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 32.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 6.8% 2.9% 1.1% 0.2% 3.7% 1.6% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##