* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/27/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 25 27 27 24 20 19 19 18 19 23 30 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 23 25 27 27 24 20 19 19 18 19 23 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 12 20 18 13 21 35 36 48 39 48 34 47 28 30 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 0 1 2 -2 -6 -9 -5 -8 -10 -6 0 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 299 293 275 289 304 243 242 225 244 233 249 249 280 279 320 316 345 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.3 23.7 23.5 24.2 24.4 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 143 144 144 138 131 122 117 113 108 99 96 94 99 101 107 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 -55.6 -56.2 -56.1 -56.4 -55.8 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.5 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 61 63 64 66 69 67 68 70 67 71 64 61 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -51 -48 -37 -23 -8 -15 -11 -14 -4 2 11 4 19 29 32 39 200 MB DIV 31 35 6 -11 14 36 38 47 54 68 20 17 30 -17 -3 -24 -32 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -3 -1 2 3 1 6 2 5 5 11 5 -3 -8 -19 LAND (KM) 717 765 802 837 859 950 1073 1194 1159 1187 1154 1112 1072 1151 1278 1480 1720 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.4 28.5 29.7 30.8 31.9 33.1 34.2 35.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.2 65.5 65.8 66.0 66.0 65.7 65.1 64.7 63.7 62.6 60.9 59.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 25 26 27 19 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 20. 20. 19. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 0. -5. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 3. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.2 64.8 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/27/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.9 109.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/27/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/27/2023 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 19 20 23 25 27 27 24 20 19 19 18 19 23 30 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 20 23 25 27 27 24 20 19 19 18 19 23 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 20 22 24 24 21 17 16 16 15 16 20 27 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT