* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL042023 06/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 33 33 31 28 24 23 22 24 27 31 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 31 33 33 31 28 24 23 22 24 27 31 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 29 29 28 27 25 24 23 22 22 24 26 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 20 18 11 26 26 42 37 45 47 40 38 12 12 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 0 1 1 1 -5 -1 -7 -5 -11 -5 -3 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 294 268 290 300 269 236 221 234 223 241 226 246 225 264 195 194 190 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.2 26.5 25.8 25.8 24.9 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.5 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 146 142 137 133 125 117 110 110 103 98 95 94 94 98 98 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.4 -55.1 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -55.9 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 55 56 60 61 62 63 65 64 64 65 66 65 64 62 59 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 3 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -55 -50 -35 -21 -14 -11 7 -18 16 13 30 6 21 16 20 14 15 200 MB DIV 35 11 2 24 42 15 62 47 46 -7 41 -3 3 -7 -2 -10 -3 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -1 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 1 0 -6 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 813 863 887 929 977 1073 1083 1070 1074 1108 1081 1046 1038 1099 1168 1203 1169 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.9 30.2 31.2 32.3 33.0 34.0 34.8 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.5 65.9 66.3 66.5 66.6 66.4 66.1 65.5 64.8 63.8 62.4 61.0 59.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 6 7 5 6 6 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 25 20 14 10 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 13. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 6. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.0 65.5 ** 2023 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042023 CINDY 06/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 126.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.0 to 144.1 0.60 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.8 109.3 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 11.0% 7.6% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042023 CINDY 06/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042023 CINDY 06/27/2023 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 31 33 33 31 28 24 23 22 24 27 31 37 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 29 31 31 29 26 22 21 20 22 25 29 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 26 26 24 21 17 16 15 17 20 24 30 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT