* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912023 06/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 49 57 68 79 91 100 101 92 74 58 46 36 28 23 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 49 57 68 79 91 100 101 92 74 58 46 36 28 23 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 49 58 67 77 92 101 103 95 78 62 50 43 38 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 7 5 11 10 17 30 29 31 26 28 23 17 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 3 6 1 -3 -1 -2 2 3 2 -1 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 40 27 23 60 27 17 97 107 100 98 87 72 69 69 71 88 96 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.0 28.0 27.4 26.9 26.3 25.9 25.9 25.3 24.6 24.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 150 149 148 143 143 136 130 123 117 118 113 105 102 105 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 77 76 77 77 74 71 68 71 75 76 76 73 70 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 15 21 24 28 30 30 26 23 21 19 16 15 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 2 12 3 5 8 21 46 68 103 102 126 116 120 111 111 100 96 200 MB DIV 44 68 79 93 102 47 31 32 61 19 17 14 -8 -9 4 -24 -29 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -11 -7 -4 -14 -3 -3 0 -2 -3 -8 -8 -4 -5 0 -1 LAND (KM) 410 466 512 557 608 692 766 795 816 840 849 853 853 843 852 893 954 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 5 5 3 1 1 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 12 11 11 11 8 11 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -14. -13. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 8. 10. 17. 24. 27. 21. 16. 13. 9. 5. 4. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 20. 11. 2. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 39. 51. 60. 61. 52. 34. 18. 6. -4. -12. -17. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.3 105.6 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.68 11.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 -10.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 53.4% 36.8% 24.5% 13.0% 27.1% 32.9% 18.8% Logistic: 46.0% 75.1% 60.8% 51.5% 19.0% 43.7% 13.9% 8.5% Bayesian: 28.0% 55.8% 45.5% 37.9% 14.2% 20.8% 3.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.3% 61.4% 47.7% 38.0% 15.4% 30.5% 16.6% 9.1% DTOPS: 30.0% 64.0% 53.0% 40.0% 18.0% 62.0% 54.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912023 INVEST 06/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##