* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 06/27/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 23 26 33 44 57 63 61 64 65 65 65 65 66 64 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 23 26 33 44 57 63 61 46 33 29 27 30 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 36 35 30 28 27 27 30 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 8 10 11 13 11 12 11 8 21 14 8 10 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 0 7 11 16 12 12 5 4 0 7 9 SHEAR DIR 17 9 354 343 9 40 7 22 41 14 292 355 7 7 288 301 67 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.6 29.1 28.2 27.8 28.9 29.3 27.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 158 163 167 170 169 169 168 171 155 146 142 154 158 143 68 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -50.2 -50.6 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 8 10 9 11 8 8 2 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 83 80 79 83 84 87 81 80 71 71 69 72 67 63 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 13 12 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 30 23 3 -7 -2 -18 7 -1 20 26 77 85 99 72 43 5 200 MB DIV 86 88 68 39 19 75 100 159 113 97 107 71 18 30 4 -26 -26 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 0 -3 -8 -10 0 -5 -4 -7 -13 -16 -2 LAND (KM) 447 447 449 460 462 443 343 272 173 59 -57 -172 -109 -22 60 -12 213 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.7 12.7 13.8 15.2 16.8 18.5 20.1 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.8 93.3 93.9 94.6 96.0 97.4 98.9 100.1 101.2 101.9 103.0 104.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 7 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 11 12 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 18 23 36 38 37 41 30 16 9 7 15 13 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 7. 18. 28. 35. 40. 44. 47. 50. 52. 55. 57. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 4. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 6. 13. 24. 37. 43. 41. 44. 45. 45. 45. 45. 46. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.0 92.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/27/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.92 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 0.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 33.3% 14.1% 7.1% 2.9% 19.7% 48.2% 53.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 2.3% 29.0% Consensus: 1.3% 12.1% 4.9% 2.4% 1.0% 6.7% 16.8% 27.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/27/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##