* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/28/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 77 83 93 95 88 73 56 41 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 77 83 93 95 88 73 56 41 30 23 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 74 79 86 90 87 73 58 47 40 35 33 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 9 9 12 8 16 27 31 32 26 22 23 20 19 14 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 3 0 -3 1 2 -3 -1 0 2 2 0 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 16 11 21 28 82 88 84 101 92 90 80 89 94 119 138 127 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.0 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 150 147 143 144 137 134 130 126 121 114 110 106 103 101 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 78 78 78 78 79 76 74 74 75 76 75 73 69 68 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 24 25 27 29 30 30 27 23 20 17 15 14 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 3 9 17 36 56 83 100 116 120 118 99 99 91 86 82 200 MB DIV 72 92 76 63 52 37 37 37 40 27 44 37 18 1 -32 -28 -20 700-850 TADV -14 -9 -7 -9 -12 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 1 2 2 3 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 507 542 585 637 694 798 851 865 867 877 869 863 843 843 859 884 915 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.1 111.4 112.7 113.8 114.4 114.9 115.2 115.5 115.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 12 11 8 14 9 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 16. 13. 8. 3. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 28. 38. 40. 33. 18. 1. -13. -25. -32. -36. -41. -45. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.3 107.2 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.38 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 46.5% 33.7% 22.4% 13.1% 25.4% 16.8% 6.8% Logistic: 12.4% 34.0% 14.1% 9.9% 2.7% 5.3% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 9.8% 11.2% 5.8% 2.9% 1.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 14.1% 30.6% 17.9% 11.7% 5.6% 11.1% 6.3% 2.5% DTOPS: 41.0% 60.0% 41.0% 28.0% 15.0% 40.0% 21.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##