* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 79 86 93 101 98 84 67 50 35 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 72 79 86 93 101 98 84 67 50 35 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 82 86 92 93 84 69 56 45 38 33 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 9 7 7 6 9 18 31 29 30 25 23 18 18 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 3 -2 0 5 -2 -1 -1 0 0 4 -2 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 5 31 33 34 87 90 98 112 98 93 89 80 81 147 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.2 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.7 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 147 144 142 140 135 127 121 119 114 108 105 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.1 -51.3 -50.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 77 77 78 76 74 74 75 75 73 71 64 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 26 28 30 31 27 25 21 18 15 12 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -6 1 11 21 36 64 76 93 112 120 113 99 111 101 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 80 60 55 41 55 15 49 40 33 38 50 18 -7 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -9 -12 -6 -2 0 0 -2 -1 1 4 3 2 12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 550 593 645 686 728 814 830 855 865 871 892 912 953 976 988 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.6 109.4 110.0 110.6 111.8 113.0 114.0 115.0 115.5 115.8 116.3 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 4 3 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 14 11 9 10 11 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. -0. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 8. 6. 4. -2. -6. -10. -12. -14. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 36. 33. 19. 2. -15. -30. -41. -49. -54. -57. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.2 107.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.40 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 8.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.3% 46.6% 32.3% 23.1% 13.9% 22.5% 14.4% 5.0% Logistic: 42.3% 65.8% 38.5% 33.4% 11.4% 14.9% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 26.7% 31.3% 20.3% 13.4% 4.7% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 34.4% 47.9% 30.4% 23.3% 10.0% 14.1% 5.1% 1.8% DTOPS: 41.0% 56.0% 36.0% 19.0% 9.0% 20.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##