* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 06/28/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 25 34 46 58 65 68 71 71 73 75 73 73 69 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 25 34 46 58 65 68 71 56 52 53 51 44 44 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 35 37 37 32 34 38 42 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 13 13 12 16 10 13 10 6 2 4 16 17 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 10 16 12 9 5 3 2 7 4 SHEAR DIR 358 4 52 47 36 32 33 51 27 51 61 341 139 164 182 130 108 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.9 30.2 28.6 28.0 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 166 165 165 166 167 165 163 160 160 155 163 166 150 144 68 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.6 -50.5 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 6 9 6 9 6 8 4 6 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 80 81 83 84 87 85 83 81 78 77 79 75 74 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 10 12 13 13 13 14 11 11 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -22 -22 -17 -23 -15 -5 6 7 28 44 61 85 103 92 49 33 200 MB DIV 1 10 37 51 41 100 121 148 111 72 75 81 45 50 -26 -28 -9 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 1 2 6 3 8 2 LAND (KM) 467 470 418 391 381 346 303 247 178 111 54 -16 33 120 120 -18 61 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.3 14.2 15.3 16.5 17.4 18.5 19.7 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.7 96.5 97.2 97.9 99.4 100.8 102.0 103.0 103.7 104.4 105.0 105.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 33 33 32 33 37 29 22 19 18 15 25 24 7 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 6. 16. 25. 32. 36. 40. 43. 46. 50. 53. 56. 57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 14. 26. 38. 45. 48. 51. 51. 53. 55. 53. 53. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 94.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.98 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 22.4% 7.3% 3.0% 1.0% 11.0% 33.7% 35.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 2.9% 17.5% Consensus: 1.1% 11.1% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 3.9% 12.2% 17.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##