* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 87 92 96 91 76 60 44 31 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 87 92 96 91 76 60 44 31 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 84 86 89 86 76 62 50 40 34 31 30 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 11 8 12 22 28 27 26 23 20 19 17 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 -2 -4 0 1 -3 2 1 1 3 -1 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 358 9 35 66 91 98 105 107 101 91 77 78 107 131 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.5 26.8 26.2 25.5 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.4 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 148 145 143 141 137 130 123 115 109 108 109 113 116 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 77 77 75 74 73 73 73 73 73 69 64 65 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 26 28 29 30 26 23 19 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 4 15 25 46 75 87 107 124 127 105 111 110 110 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 66 60 49 55 23 33 51 41 32 14 51 3 0 -20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -14 -6 -2 -4 0 -1 -2 -1 0 1 9 12 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 559 607 661 709 757 803 816 838 856 889 904 944 993 1022 1035 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.1 108.9 109.7 110.4 111.0 112.2 113.4 114.4 115.4 116.1 116.5 117.0 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 13 9 8 10 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -20. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 3. -1. -6. -10. -14. -14. -13. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 21. 6. -10. -26. -39. -50. -55. -58. -59. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.3 108.1 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.35 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.8% 37.1% 23.7% 18.6% 13.1% 20.3% 12.5% 3.9% Logistic: 19.1% 34.0% 12.6% 9.6% 3.3% 3.4% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 16.6% 15.5% 7.2% 4.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.8% 28.9% 14.5% 10.8% 5.7% 8.1% 4.3% 1.4% DTOPS: 32.0% 42.0% 30.0% 22.0% 14.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##