* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 06/28/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 65 70 68 68 68 73 72 69 63 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 58 65 70 68 60 55 60 59 53 47 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 40 47 51 53 53 51 45 50 55 50 39 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 13 12 11 15 15 17 10 5 6 12 14 9 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 -1 3 5 8 12 19 12 4 1 2 7 5 3 SHEAR DIR 11 48 46 43 35 36 60 44 24 41 59 139 167 166 162 130 144 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.3 30.0 30.1 28.5 23.9 19.6 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 166 165 166 166 165 164 161 161 157 164 166 150 103 63 64 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 9 8 8 7 8 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 80 81 83 82 86 86 85 79 82 78 78 74 71 62 51 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 14 14 15 14 13 12 15 15 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -21 -23 -24 -28 -9 4 12 0 47 54 69 94 112 56 43 46 200 MB DIV 13 32 38 53 79 101 119 125 69 67 77 87 21 12 -27 -25 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -6 -4 2 2 6 7 3 12 6 LAND (KM) 457 407 381 358 337 310 258 217 124 83 -2 42 120 68 45 272 506 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.0 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.2 18.2 19.6 20.9 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.7 97.6 98.3 99.0 100.4 101.6 102.6 103.5 104.4 105.1 105.9 107.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 11 14 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 32 32 33 38 32 25 20 19 17 26 21 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 23. 29. 32. 35. 38. 42. 45. 47. 47. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 9. 7. 6. 4. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 33. 40. 45. 43. 43. 43. 48. 47. 44. 38. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.6 95.8 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.94 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -8.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.3% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 21.2% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 21.6% 7.0% 3.2% 1.1% 14.3% 38.3% 33.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 20.5% 5.0% 1.2% 0.8% 5.1% 4.1% 37.7% Consensus: 1.0% 21.1% 9.7% 1.5% 0.6% 13.5% 20.0% 23.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 11.0% 16.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/28/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##