* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 83 88 90 83 73 57 44 33 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 83 88 90 83 73 57 44 33 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 73 75 77 79 80 77 69 58 47 40 35 33 32 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 4 2 15 24 23 28 23 21 20 23 23 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 0 -2 2 0 -3 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 13 17 24 81 95 105 107 100 90 88 61 101 125 134 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.1 24.8 24.8 25.2 25.8 25.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 143 141 141 133 127 121 111 107 106 111 119 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 77 76 76 74 73 74 73 73 71 72 65 63 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 26 27 28 26 25 21 18 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -2 8 23 32 57 71 91 104 127 106 104 116 113 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 46 48 55 58 43 34 14 29 25 27 16 2 6 -23 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -5 -4 -3 -1 1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 14 16 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 600 649 703 744 788 805 821 841 877 912 945 977 999 1067 1177 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.7 109.5 110.2 110.9 111.5 112.6 113.9 114.9 115.7 116.5 117.1 117.5 117.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 10 8 9 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -12. -11. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 20. 13. 3. -13. -26. -37. -47. -51. -54. -55. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.3 108.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.34 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 24.4% 19.1% 16.4% 12.0% 17.6% 11.3% 2.9% Logistic: 8.6% 26.0% 9.4% 5.9% 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.5% 5.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.7% 18.8% 10.0% 7.7% 4.5% 6.3% 3.8% 1.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 30.0% 19.0% 14.0% 8.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##