* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922023 06/29/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 45 58 68 73 77 73 68 67 65 59 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 45 58 68 73 77 73 68 67 65 59 51 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 34 37 46 54 59 62 62 61 59 54 45 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 6 5 8 12 11 13 6 5 3 5 10 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 5 3 5 6 1 7 5 9 7 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 40 48 66 58 30 33 48 58 47 26 1 111 162 152 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.2 29.7 29.9 28.9 27.9 27.5 24.6 23.2 21.9 20.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 172 172 170 168 163 165 153 142 137 107 93 79 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 -50.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 9 7 8 3 4 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 84 85 86 84 82 75 74 68 68 60 61 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 14 15 14 16 16 15 18 17 17 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -5 -15 -21 -3 11 47 60 105 99 89 88 73 67 60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 46 71 91 95 103 107 47 69 55 26 9 -18 -17 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 -1 -2 -6 -4 -12 -6 -5 0 3 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 232 203 189 155 134 79 80 200 170 61 133 231 336 466 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 34 36 43 44 27 19 25 12 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 8. 11. 9. 8. 5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 33. 43. 48. 52. 48. 43. 42. 40. 34. 26. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 96.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP922023 INVEST 06/29/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.97 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -8.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 39.2% 25.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.0% 31.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 35.7% 17.8% 8.6% 3.9% 36.0% 63.6% 33.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 38.5% 26.6% 12.5% 2.8% 5.5% 4.0% 35.8% Consensus: 1.8% 37.8% 23.4% 7.0% 2.2% 22.8% 33.0% 22.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 21.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 16.0% 19.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922023 INVEST 06/29/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##