* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 84 85 84 76 66 53 40 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 84 85 84 76 66 53 40 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 79 80 78 72 63 53 44 38 34 31 28 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 5 11 22 21 19 19 21 24 22 22 21 24 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -4 3 0 0 -2 1 -2 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 13 6 6 39 68 86 91 107 105 78 85 103 106 118 105 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 142 142 139 130 122 115 110 110 111 116 119 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 76 74 72 71 70 73 73 72 69 62 59 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 27 27 29 27 25 21 18 16 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 9 19 25 46 69 83 90 117 115 110 112 107 99 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 34 42 50 37 49 28 28 46 52 30 6 -3 -43 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -5 -3 -3 -5 -2 -3 -1 0 0 2 4 7 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 653 699 746 793 811 837 865 894 920 935 958 990 1045 1088 1131 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 110.2 110.8 111.5 112.1 113.4 114.7 115.7 116.3 116.6 116.9 117.3 117.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 1 2 2 3 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 8 9 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -10. -11. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -5. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 10. 9. 1. -9. -22. -35. -44. -53. -59. -64. -67. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.4 109.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.29 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 21.8% 17.3% 14.8% 10.9% 15.3% 9.8% 0.0% Logistic: 7.7% 20.6% 6.2% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.5% 14.6% 8.0% 6.2% 4.1% 5.2% 3.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 18.0% 12.0% 12.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##