* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022023 06/29/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 69 75 76 74 71 69 64 59 53 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 50 63 69 75 76 74 71 69 64 59 53 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 59 65 70 70 67 62 54 44 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 8 10 8 15 6 12 2 1 2 8 5 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 5 5 3 2 6 10 8 11 10 11 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 34 52 53 37 22 18 28 60 112 190 262 159 131 134 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.7 30.7 30.4 30.4 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.1 27.7 26.0 23.4 23.0 21.4 20.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 172 170 169 164 161 161 155 140 122 94 90 74 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.3 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 9 8 9 6 5 2 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 85 85 84 83 78 76 71 67 63 61 61 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 16 16 17 16 15 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -24 -27 -7 1 10 37 57 88 73 86 74 63 48 41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 58 72 104 112 91 87 58 57 48 23 -11 3 -20 -32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 0 -5 -3 -6 -6 -6 -7 -4 -5 -1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 198 184 156 141 94 64 92 232 136 113 202 269 368 505 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.4 15.9 17.2 18.5 19.9 21.1 21.9 22.3 22.5 22.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.3 98.2 99.1 100.1 101.0 102.7 104.6 106.4 107.8 109.3 110.9 112.1 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 36 42 45 36 22 19 24 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 17. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 25. 23. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 33. 39. 45. 46. 44. 41. 39. 34. 29. 23. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 97.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 TWO 06/29/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 11.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -0.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -8.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 37.6% 24.7% 18.2% 0.0% 25.4% 23.5% 44.4% Logistic: 9.8% 51.5% 27.9% 16.1% 8.6% 40.4% 45.7% 18.2% Bayesian: 2.8% 50.2% 36.3% 16.5% 3.6% 38.9% 36.6% 22.0% Consensus: 8.4% 46.4% 29.6% 17.0% 4.1% 34.9% 35.3% 28.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 23.0% 8.0% 7.0% 5.0% 29.0% 21.0% 27.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 TWO 06/29/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##