* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 82 83 84 79 72 61 49 38 29 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 78 82 83 84 79 72 61 49 38 29 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 78 77 72 65 56 47 39 34 29 26 24 22 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 4 4 5 9 17 15 18 19 21 23 22 20 19 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 0 3 2 0 2 5 4 0 0 -1 0 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 10 96 78 64 96 104 99 102 90 93 112 113 123 112 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.6 25.1 24.6 24.4 24.5 24.9 25.0 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 140 139 132 124 116 110 105 103 104 108 109 106 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -51.0 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 73 72 72 72 69 70 68 65 56 57 53 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 27 28 27 28 27 25 22 19 16 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 22 30 46 57 62 78 85 111 98 94 102 105 105 94 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 49 64 45 44 32 23 33 55 26 13 3 3 8 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -2 -5 -3 0 -1 0 1 3 5 8 18 7 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 666 718 773 781 784 806 847 876 881 905 947 970 1004 1037 1063 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.4 112.0 112.6 113.8 115.0 115.8 116.2 116.7 117.3 117.8 118.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 10 9 9 9 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -23. -26. -29. -33. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 9. 4. -3. -14. -26. -37. -46. -54. -60. -63. -65. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 110.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.27 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 21.7% 17.6% 15.0% 11.1% 15.2% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 9.9% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 10.7% 7.2% 5.5% 3.9% 5.1% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 24.0% 15.0% 13.0% 9.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##