* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022023 06/29/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 46 51 64 72 77 76 71 68 63 60 52 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 46 51 64 72 77 76 71 68 63 60 52 47 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 51 57 63 64 63 62 56 46 35 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 6 11 13 17 11 9 6 5 4 4 5 10 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 2 -1 0 6 4 7 5 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 44 34 10 13 9 35 58 92 106 63 114 123 125 115 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.5 30.3 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.9 27.5 26.7 22.5 21.4 20.3 20.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 170 170 168 161 159 156 153 137 129 86 75 63 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.7 -50.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.5 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -50.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 9 8 9 4 6 2 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 85 85 86 84 82 79 74 67 68 59 58 53 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 13 14 16 16 16 17 17 17 15 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -23 -4 0 1 34 41 65 66 64 73 59 50 46 50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 81 112 92 70 79 66 63 69 36 26 -29 -35 -7 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 -1 0 -4 -2 0 1 0 -3 -3 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 196 182 145 136 131 76 47 115 234 106 60 171 266 399 538 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.7 19.1 20.3 21.5 22.2 22.6 22.8 23.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.2 100.2 101.0 101.8 103.6 105.3 106.8 108.1 109.3 110.5 112.0 113.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 10 11 10 9 7 6 7 7 8 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 45 49 38 29 19 18 19 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 10. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 20. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 12. 13. 12. 11. 8. 7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 21. 34. 42. 47. 46. 41. 38. 33. 30. 22. 17. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 98.3 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 TWO 06/29/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.93 14.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -2.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 49.1% 31.5% 18.8% 0.0% 26.3% 27.0% 48.0% Logistic: 22.5% 66.2% 42.7% 28.5% 13.6% 38.4% 42.9% 14.1% Bayesian: 10.5% 56.8% 42.8% 27.4% 7.3% 43.1% 28.9% 11.0% Consensus: 15.9% 57.4% 39.0% 24.9% 7.0% 35.9% 32.9% 24.3% DTOPS: 5.0% 36.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 28.0% 17.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 TWO 06/29/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##