* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 76 75 73 64 56 45 35 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 76 75 73 64 56 45 35 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 71 69 61 52 43 36 30 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 9 16 16 16 17 18 21 18 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 2 0 -2 4 2 3 0 2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 176 102 74 94 103 116 105 101 93 98 111 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.3 25.7 25.0 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 140 136 133 125 118 111 99 98 100 105 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 70 70 70 71 68 64 63 61 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 27 27 27 25 24 20 18 15 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 41 56 65 76 73 69 112 108 94 104 110 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 72 39 39 39 12 12 36 14 2 -11 2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -7 -3 0 -2 0 0 2 4 6 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 673 726 722 723 728 752 792 835 909 945 953 1003 1082 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.8 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.2 112.0 112.5 113.0 114.2 115.2 115.9 117.4 118.1 118.1 118.7 119.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 5 5 6 4 5 5 2 1 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -17. -20. -21. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -11. -19. -30. -40. -51. -59. -65. -68. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.24 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 19.8% 16.2% 13.6% 10.2% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 4.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 8.2% 6.1% 4.7% 3.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 6.0% 3.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##