* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022023 06/29/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 58 67 74 77 73 66 61 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 58 67 74 77 73 66 61 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 45 49 55 61 67 68 65 61 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 13 16 17 8 12 5 7 6 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 2 -1 0 0 5 3 4 4 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 30 21 23 27 28 72 64 83 59 97 140 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.0 29.4 29.6 29.3 28.8 27.5 27.1 24.9 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 168 166 159 160 156 151 136 133 110 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 7 6 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 85 83 84 84 82 79 76 71 72 71 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 12 14 16 16 15 15 14 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -9 -2 3 11 38 61 63 71 75 72 63 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 109 88 67 78 71 59 55 60 40 -2 2 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 0 -2 1 -5 -3 -4 -3 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 179 157 142 117 97 59 64 146 219 141 93 136 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.5 17.1 18.5 19.8 20.9 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.2 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.9 100.8 101.6 102.5 104.5 106.0 107.0 108.2 109.2 110.0 111.1 112.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 8 7 6 4 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 50 42 30 23 17 24 19 10 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 23. 32. 39. 42. 38. 31. 26. 21. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 99.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 TWO 06/29/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.87 11.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -13.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 45.4% 27.8% 18.4% 12.7% 24.8% 25.3% 34.7% Logistic: 14.1% 45.1% 20.7% 11.3% 5.2% 21.7% 26.6% 6.8% Bayesian: 7.3% 53.1% 39.6% 24.9% 1.1% 5.6% 4.5% 4.9% Consensus: 12.0% 47.8% 29.4% 18.2% 6.4% 17.4% 18.8% 15.5% DTOPS: 10.0% 57.0% 41.0% 27.0% 17.0% 27.0% 22.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 TWO 06/29/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##