* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/30/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 81 76 66 54 42 31 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 81 76 66 54 42 31 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 81 79 76 72 62 52 42 34 29 25 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 11 14 17 15 17 21 15 14 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 0 4 1 0 1 0 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 65 74 100 109 119 108 101 106 103 97 97 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.0 23.6 23.9 24.2 23.9 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 137 132 127 120 111 101 96 98 101 99 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 70 70 71 70 67 63 60 53 53 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 25 25 23 22 19 17 15 12 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 49 56 63 60 81 93 106 91 91 109 104 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 39 21 43 21 15 29 51 39 1 4 13 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -1 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 706 707 700 706 718 749 789 848 892 940 984 1059 1162 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.7 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.7 115.6 116.6 117.7 118.4 118.9 119.8 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -0. -4. -10. -16. -22. -26. -30. -34. -38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. -4. -14. -26. -38. -49. -59. -64. -70. -70. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.5 111.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.17 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 19.1% 15.5% 13.0% 9.7% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 4.4% 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 7.9% 5.9% 4.5% 3.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##