* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/30/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 77 70 63 50 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 83 77 70 63 50 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 83 77 70 63 51 41 33 27 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 20 21 15 15 19 11 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -3 -2 5 2 -2 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 111 114 113 124 120 103 106 100 96 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.6 24.8 23.7 23.2 23.1 23.5 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 125 120 117 109 97 92 90 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 67 71 72 70 65 59 51 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 20 20 18 16 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 65 68 83 86 92 87 77 79 82 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 26 31 21 13 58 43 32 12 -6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 676 671 673 681 696 720 772 834 872 937 1006 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.6 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.0 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.9 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.3 115.2 116.1 117.2 117.9 118.7 119.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -25. -32. -37. -42. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -15. -22. -35. -47. -61. -72. -79. -85. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.1 111.9 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 36.9 to 148.5 0.03 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 337.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##