* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 06/30/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 84 76 67 50 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 92 84 76 67 50 35 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 92 84 75 66 52 41 33 27 23 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 19 19 16 17 12 14 8 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 3 1 3 -3 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 106 108 112 116 113 108 99 96 90 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.1 23.9 22.9 22.8 23.0 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 123 119 115 112 99 88 88 90 86 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 68 69 68 63 58 50 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 21 20 20 17 15 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 78 79 81 76 68 49 52 54 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 26 3 11 34 29 39 -8 18 -16 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 4 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 656 656 664 682 705 755 782 826 907 962 985 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.4 19.6 19.6 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.2 113.8 114.4 114.9 115.9 116.8 117.6 118.9 119.6 119.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -26. -35. -43. -50. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -9. -7. -4. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -20. -22. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -11. -19. -28. -45. -60. -75. -86. -93. -101. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.5 112.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 06/30/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##