* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022023 07/01/23 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 77 77 76 73 70 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 77 77 77 76 73 70 65 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 78 79 79 78 74 69 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 18 19 16 18 15 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 1 -3 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 34 32 32 23 48 65 19 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.7 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 163 161 155 150 145 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 9 9 6 7 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 78 79 78 76 69 72 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 34 18 35 31 27 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 35 11 -3 3 31 0 -11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -3 -4 -6 -1 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 42 44 41 58 84 222 207 170 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.1 21.5 21.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.4 105.3 105.9 106.5 107.7 108.6 109.0 109.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 24 23 13 9 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 1. -4. -9. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -2. 1. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.0 103.5 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 BEATRIZ 07/01/23 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.45 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 34.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.76 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 16.9% 13.5% 11.2% 7.8% 12.3% 8.5% 4.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 6.7% 4.7% 3.8% 2.7% 4.2% 2.9% 1.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 BEATRIZ 07/01/23 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##