* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012023 07/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 51 43 37 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 59 51 43 37 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 60 52 45 40 32 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 12 15 10 12 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 3 1 0 3 -3 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 121 120 115 113 117 122 108 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.6 23.9 22.9 22.9 23.0 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 112 107 99 89 89 90 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 68 68 67 66 63 57 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 19 18 16 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 69 81 77 70 66 36 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 5 20 15 17 4 -8 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 692 713 732 755 788 853 938 1048 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.6 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.3 114.9 115.4 115.9 116.9 118.1 119.3 120.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -27. -33. -41. -50. -58. -65. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.9 113.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012023 ADRIAN 07/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 49.8 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012023 ADRIAN 07/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##