* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BEATRIZ EP022023 07/01/23 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 62 61 61 61 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 62 61 61 61 58 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 62 59 57 56 53 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 13 17 8 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 4 1 -3 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 37 360 360 23 39 45 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 163 160 158 156 149 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 77 76 69 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 36 44 48 45 49 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 14 15 22 55 21 6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -5 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 20 21 43 106 178 217 156 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.4 106.1 106.7 107.2 107.9 108.5 109.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 19 25 22 17 13 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.0 104.7 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022023 BEATRIZ 07/01/23 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.52 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.83 -5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 16.3% 12.7% 9.8% 7.4% 12.7% 10.3% 5.1% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.7% 4.3% 3.3% 2.5% 4.3% 3.4% 1.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022023 BEATRIZ 07/01/23 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##