* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/06/23 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 24 30 37 48 59 61 59 51 45 35 29 24 18 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 24 30 37 48 59 61 59 51 45 35 29 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 19 20 22 26 29 30 29 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 25 23 22 18 15 15 14 8 7 3 5 6 7 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 0 -3 0 0 3 5 0 -1 2 3 7 4 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 82 87 89 80 72 53 49 27 58 58 88 54 112 100 87 148 218 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.3 26.8 25.1 23.0 21.8 21.0 21.2 20.5 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 147 149 148 148 149 147 148 133 116 94 81 72 74 66 69 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -50.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 75 78 78 79 78 79 79 80 77 75 68 63 54 49 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 11 16 20 25 29 29 29 26 23 19 16 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 18 26 26 45 34 41 62 70 75 91 89 80 86 89 87 200 MB DIV 82 72 96 113 134 152 114 100 61 47 1 -17 -19 -8 -9 6 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -11 -12 -8 -7 1 2 3 5 5 14 LAND (KM) 769 764 769 788 807 807 759 672 611 564 560 710 891 1047 1240 1433 1624 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.8 13.3 14.4 16.1 18.0 19.4 20.3 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.2 108.3 108.3 108.3 108.3 108.3 108.6 109.6 111.3 113.9 117.0 119.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 1 1 4 8 11 13 15 15 13 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 17 18 18 16 12 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 11. 19. 26. 31. 34. 36. 35. 33. 30. 26. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -14. -14. -12. -10. -7. -4. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 21. 28. 29. 28. 23. 17. 11. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 4. 10. 17. 28. 39. 41. 39. 31. 25. 15. 9. 4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 108.0 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/06/23 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/06/23 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##