* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2023 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932023 07/06/23 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 30 35 47 60 70 67 66 56 48 40 34 30 24 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 30 35 47 60 70 67 66 56 48 40 34 30 24 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 20 21 25 30 32 32 29 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 29 25 23 23 15 10 14 9 8 5 4 5 5 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -1 -2 1 2 8 4 1 0 6 3 4 4 1 3 SHEAR DIR 84 86 77 61 55 42 48 37 55 67 97 67 59 77 98 182 210 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 27.1 25.0 23.0 22.3 21.5 22.2 21.9 20.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 150 150 150 150 150 150 137 115 95 86 77 83 80 69 70 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 76 77 79 77 76 79 81 81 72 69 60 55 50 47 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 12 17 20 27 30 33 31 31 26 22 19 16 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 23 22 28 30 42 63 83 96 124 123 126 107 103 96 81 200 MB DIV 77 106 130 144 137 160 127 86 31 6 -15 -8 -14 -7 -25 -5 -6 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 -1 -4 -5 -6 -14 -9 -9 0 1 1 5 8 11 18 LAND (KM) 831 831 833 838 820 753 628 522 539 522 732 985 1167 1306 1418 1536 1665 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.7 14.0 15.9 18.1 19.6 20.2 20.2 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.4 108.3 108.1 107.8 107.3 107.2 108.3 110.5 113.6 117.2 120.4 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 3 3 5 8 13 17 17 16 14 10 9 9 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=588) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 32. 35. 36. 35. 33. 30. 26. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -5. -2. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 6. 8. 17. 27. 34. 31. 30. 22. 16. 11. 7. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 10. 15. 27. 40. 50. 47. 46. 36. 28. 20. 14. 10. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 12.6 108.4 ** 2023 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932023 INVEST 07/06/23 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 49.8 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.6% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932023 INVEST 07/06/23 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##